Alleged Witness Profile: Rasha Whatever

June 5-6, 2018
major additions June 9

I return now to an obscure mystery, mostly solved long ago but worth a re-explanation. It casts doubt on two lodged witness accounts that are basically the same, re-packaged, and along the way ... does much more to help show how fictitious these "Houla Massacre survivors" the UN investigation chose to believe really are.

This gets complicated. I'm following, but I'm not so sure the reader can. Please try. It's very interesting.

Background: Where Rasha Al-Sayed Would Fit In
Remember now the massacre victims were from 4 groups: The majority were named Abdulrazaq, a smaller Al-Sayed families, about the same from other assorted-name civilians, and fewer killed militants included (none of the killed soldiers or "Shabiha" were included). It turns out the other name people were mainly or all related by marriage to the al-Sayeds or mainly to the Abdulrazaqs (mostly as wives, but including some in-laws).

This targeting of two extended families is explained in the "Syrian government" version - the Sayeds were loyalist Sunnis and the Abdulrazaqs converted to Shia Islam. But it's not explained well in the opposition story where opposition Sunnis were picked at random from a town full of them. This is in fact far from random.

The witness under consideration is from the smaller al-Sayed set, and her story tries to double the size of it, perhaps without even realizing it. The ACLOS witnesses for a regime-Shabiha attack includes these 4 Sayed family survivors, still pretty comprehensive as far as I know:
2.1 Ali Al-Sayed, age 11 (stated) (The Guardian, AP, activist video, etc.)
2.2 Maryam Sayid (Der Spiegel)
2.3 Hana Harmut Sayyid (Der Spiegel)
2.4 Rasha al-Sayed Ali, 29 (The Guardian)

Rasha, 2.4, is the subject. Her father should be named Sayed Ali if this were right. But there are no "Ali" family memberas at all listed as killed, to the dozen she reports being murdered in her home. But there are several al-Sayeds she seems to be including herself in, where the name Ali has a peripheral alleged role. As I have from the start, I'll presume the name mix-up is some honest mistake, and call her Rasha Ali Al-Sayed (as meant to be given...)

This would suggest she's a daughter of a man named Ali (middle name) Al-Sayed. Conisder an incomplete listing per VDC: 94 Houla residents killed, plus these 6 Aqrab residents (that's a long and murky story I already covered here, and that we'll actual come back to in this post). There is an adult Ali Adel Al-Sayed listed as dying by the VDC, but not by anyone else (see comparative list ) That's likely a phantom entry resulting from some confusion, which there seems to be plenty of here.
Here's his phantom daughter?

Also, Ali Adel Al-Sayed is the name given by another survivor, for both himself and his slain father, which makes no sense in at least two ways (he's clear on the family and site he refers to, and everyone else on both sides agrees the father was named Aref - and an Ali Adel would not name his son Ali Adel, usually - the other dead kids have Aref as middle names, per the norm). This is just one of many serious problems with this kid's accounts. He's pretty much the star witness for the opposition's Houla Massacre story, which is just to bad for that story.

Here's Ali's 18-years-older phantom sister? He mentions no such sister, and she mentions no such kid surviving in her story. So no, this is some phantom confusion.

So where the hell was Rasha? There are at least 15 Al-Sayed people killed at 3 sites I know of. Listed north-to-south:
- Somewhere in the rebel-held north-center of town was the Oqba Al-Sayed home: 5 killed (Oqba's wife Razeena Rajab Al-Sayed (changed names? that's odd) and 4 kids, but not Oqba, a "retired officer" of something per VDC...) - this spot is out of government reach, within rebel reach.
- On south Main street is the Aref Al-Sayed home: 7+ killed (Aref, wife Izdihar/Fairoz Ali Al-Daher, their 3 young kids, Aref's brother Oqba, brother/nephew Imad/Shaoqi)  - access at this spot is debatable, but Oqba from the north wound up dead here.
- Further south on Main street is the Muawiya Al-Sayed home: 3+ killed (Muawiya, retired police officer, his soldier son Mohamed (on leave, broken leg from the clashes), and 8-year old daughter Sara - a real wife and teen/adult daughter may be missing (killed but not acknowledged, to make room for fake survivors - or is that really them who talked to Der Spiegel?) - access at this spot is debatable. At both Main Street spots, bodies were not removed by oppo. that night, left behind for the army to find and SANA to show in the morning as victims of the terrorist attack in Taldou.

A little more detail than needed in this graphic, but it helps map it out. We're dealing with the red locales here to start. But we'll follow Rasha's story into the magenta area and even through some of those purple related people.

ACLOS list by locale:
- Ali claims to have nearly died at the Aref Al-Sayed home
- Hana Harmut Sayyid are alleged survivors from the Muawiya Al-Sayed home
- Rasha Ali - crawled away from somewhere no one else has reported? Somewhere fake? Two different fake places with two versions of the same family?

Her Story as Rasha Al-Sayed
Rasha Al-Sayed Ali ACLOS section - citing Chulov, the Guardian, June 1, 2012

Rasha, whose family home is in the south of Taldou, told the UK Guardian: "We looked outside and saw the army checking houses in the neighbourhood. They were near the water plant and one of the tanks started firing on our neighbourhood. They were trying to give cover to soldiers who were starting to break into the houses."

She fails to mention they would be holding back the FSA fighters also trying to gain access. Were there two armies competing to enter from different sides? If so, why does she ignore one, like all the other opposition witnesses? No ... there was only one attacking force, and she's either telling it right, or upside-down. Note: The water plant is the hilltop army post, off-frame on the graphic above to the lower right (southeast of town, but not far). This is where shelling with tanks could come from. The Sayed homes on Main Street are a lot closer than the other homes.

Her father answered a knock on the door, unconcerned, but it was Rasha who showed the soldiers her father's ID card proving he was a retired soldier. They didn't seem to care, pushed Rasha and four other women into a corner, beat her father and "shot him in front of us," she said. One explained this was "revenge for you, Imam Ali" (meaning they're Shi'a extremists killing Sunni enemies). She says they decided verbally to kill the children in front of their parents, and shot her in the chest.

But she lived... By her story, there were 15+ people in this home, with 13+ killed (dad, mom, 4 sisters, aunt, 3+ ("all") brothers, sister in law, their baby, a neighbor). Survivors: Rasha, a one-month-old cousin who she found alive.

Clues that she really means Al-Sayed: the retired soldier/officer part really says she means Al-Sayed, where 2/3 of the reported households were headed by retired officers of police and something... and I don't know of anyone in the Abdulrazaq sector with such a distinction. The mentioned closeness to the "water plant" army base supports that. Including "Ali" in her name also supports that.

By age, Rasha is a best fit for Muawiya's home. The "revenge for Imam Ali" part would also make the most sense here (his name plays into that). He's an older man than the others, a retired police colonel, perhaps a soldier too at one point... he had a son Mohamed fighting in the SAA at age 22, I think, killed in the massacre (home on leave with a broken leg from the clashes). A 29-year-old daughter could fit here.

But 3 people are reported as killed here, not 13. And alleged surviving daughter Maryam, age 19-ish by appearance, recalls how they forgot about 8-year-old Sara as she, mom, and a couple other relatives all fled. But she doesn't mention an older sister, and Rasha doesn't mention Maryam. Or maybe... another version of her mentions a sister AND a mother escaping ... see below.

There's simply no room for Rasha in any of the 3 known Al-Sayed homes. And there's no room for a 4th one headed by a third retired officer named Ali, where some 13 people died and 2 escaped. Someone else would have reported that, and no one has.

Is this an alternate attempt to explain the Al-Sayeds as all being in one home? 13+ is similar to tally to all the Sayed family members combined (at least 15, maybe a few more, records are confused). But this might be a coincidence; the gender breakdown of the victims is not eve a close match; Rasha's story has mostly females, both living and dying, while the Sayed segment is more balanced or even man-heavy. To find a workable similarity, we needs to cross the fields and the creek to where the bulk of the killings happened, in the Abdulrazaq homes. There we find a nearly perfect match. point-for-point across this detailed cast of characters.

Her (Same) Story as Rasha Abdulrazaq
I decided after some review in 2014 Rasha had simply changed family names - but not families. Or perhaps there was some honest mix-up, and she always claimed to be Rasha Abdulrazaq, not Sayed, whose father happens to be a rare retired soldier from that segment. As I added to the ACLOS page:

As the one who's been correlating stuff, I'll say this account matches no otherwise supported victim set. "Rasha's" Al-Sayed or Al-Sayed Ali family fell through the cracks, with no records for any such people. By size, it's about the same as the UN's "13-15" overall Al-Sayeds from 3 or more homes. But by details, it's no match for even that. With thirteen people killed in one house, a neighbor involved, a pregnant sister-in-law killed, and a weeks-old infants surviving, it sounds almost like the Rasha Abdulrazaq story transfered to an al-Sayed setting - and she is named Rasha.

Via a May 28 BBC report, this similar Rasha said "We were about 15 people.... We were eight siblings, including myself (4 sisters, 3 brothers), and my sister-in-law and her son - she was also six months pregnant. With us as well were my father, my uncle's wife and her daughter, as well as our neighbor and her three kids." That's 18, the 3 kids added. "My aunt and her two daughters - one of them was only injured and she's here with me - she is one month old, the other one died." Is that the same uncle's wife? Presumably. But 2 daughters = 19 total, the baby one living, only one mentioned in her prior rundown. "We were all in the house" that should be over there on Saad road, further from the army base than Rasha Al-Sayed was.

"I survived with my mother and the one-month-old girl and my sister. They shot at us but we survived." She also says everyone was hiding behind her mother. She's one of the few who lived, Allahu Akbar. She speaks to BBC and says "They thought I was dead. It was thanks to God that I survived. He was shooting my kids and yelling."

This other and slightly earlier Rasha story could be exactly the same told to Chulov a few days later if: she changed the family name - added the retired soldier status for the dad (or didn't mention it at first) - had her mother and sister die instead of escaping with her and the baby - dropped the 3 kids of her neighbor and one cousin from her earlier tally of 19 in the house, for a total of 15 people - but still started out saying "about 15' - Kept the name Rasha (because it's her real name or one she really likes?). In neither version does she mention a husband or children, despite being 29 in one case, if not both.

A surviving mother and daughter drop off her story radar as she switches families between 5-28 and 6-1. Were the actors re-assigned to be the survivors from Muawiya's home, for a total of three former Abdulrazaqs recycled into Al-Sayeds? That seems kind of likely. As the remaining Al-Sayed witnesses not analyzed to death, Hana and Maryam merit more scrutiny if time allows. At least they got put into a home that existed, and aren't as obviously fraudulent as little Ali.

But Rasha here says she's miracle survivor Rasha Whatever, among 15 people or just the same type "plus I forget." but with two names and in two areas. Why? Poor planning, I suppose, some mix-up in the provided instructions - the kind of error that can happen when you're trying to manufacture realities. It's pretty uncommon among people telling the truth, but it happens a lot with opposition witnesses for regime crimes in Syria. This is an extra-bad, but not unprecedented example. And it gets worse.

Is she Rasha Sameer Abdulrazaq, Wife of Fadi Al-Kurdi?
Rasha says her father was shot right in the chin. Sameer Abdulrazaq was not shot in the chin according to 2014 morgue photos (report link below). No men that I can see were. And as Akrama Bakour of the FSA related Sameer's family to the BBC in the same May 28 report, there's no room for Rasha. Still, this must be the family she refers to. The disconnect is fascinating.

Here one final cluster of confusion tackled at once in a big table. With a little poring I think I have this partly decoded, but riddles are still emerging, the more I look. But the more you go over this the clearer it is this is the same batch of people related three different ways. Note how the BBC got Rasha's story and Bakour's story writing her out reported at the same time. Did they notice the bizarre contrast? Also considered is Bakour's story of another set of people named Al-Kurdi killed right before Samir's house.

Note how Bakour names the neighbor kids Kurdi, father Fadi. 4, not 3, and gender unclear. Turns out Fadi Mahmoud al-Kurdi (their dad) is likely the son of Mahmoud Omar Al-Kurdi, the shepherd who happened to be killed nearby. So these 4 "grandsons" are double-listed.

These are the also Aqrab residents: The 2014 Morgue photos report includes "91- Mahmoud Omer Al-kurdi, 45 years old, father, he was resident of Aqrab village and lived in place where massacred happened. (no picture)" So ... the massacre happened partly in Aqrab? Other sources say yes, and tortured there, by "Shabiha." (see added comment here.) Bakour says he and the others were just near the "entrance" of Taldou. But the kids were also IN the house... The VDC lists the Kurdi kids as from Aqrab. They and others also list Mahmoud's wife, Zainab Arouq (reported alive at first, dead elsewhere).

Mahmoud was in or near the home or whatever - he's included in this just like his grandkids and their mother. The 4 grandkids are usually listed a 3 boys, or 2 boys and a girl (2014 morgue photos report) or, altogether, 3 boys and a girl: Mahmoud (named for Grandpa), Omar, Mohamed (baby), and Zeynab (named for grandma). All names are followed by Fadi Al-Kurdi.

The gender-number-unclear neighbor "kids" sound kind of like the same, even without the these other correlating clues. The mother of 3 who died becomes the mother of 4 who survived. In no version is she given a name, but in Bakour's version, she survived the shots. Keep that in mind.

The coup d'grace: note there is no surviving daughter for Samir when there clearly should be. There are no sons mentioned, and just 4 daughters, all dead. The morgue photos used for this 2014 report includes all 4, dead in photos and just like Bakour says, along with dad and no sons shown or named (suggesting she lived - according to the people making that list). But Rasha's direct stories have an implied three brothers, but always unnamed. And the one 6-months pregnant daughter-in-law is there, with baby, dead. Aunt dead, two daughters, one surviving. Mom survived. This is all agreed and sounds like the same household, in slightly different versions; Rasha Abdulrazaq's home was Sameer Abdulrazaq's home. One surviving sister is disagreed between Rasha and Bakour, besides Rasha herself, and her brothers. And also where's the neighbor lady who died, the mother of those kids?

The brother's don't appear, but Rasha might. Even as Bakour writes her out, he seems to write her right back in, in a difretent role. The mother of the Kurdi kids in his house survived. Like Rasha, she was shot (but perhaps not in the same area/s, as claimed with no visuals: he says thigh and belly, while Rasha said chest). Bakour says this didn't happen in the home, but whatever. This mystery woman is the daughter-IN-LAW of the elder Kurdi, so the DAUGHTER of ... Sameer Abdulrazaq, perhaps?

If so, Rasha is the same person as the un-named surviving mother of the Kurdi kids in Bakour's version. She's the link between one targeted section and another, and with murders way up in Aqrab. (Aqrab was government-held, but Islamist parties were present, and would be capable of abducting people here and there). If so, both of Rasha's own version would have her calling herself a dead, unnamed neighbor, and ignoring her own kids in the version where she was an Al-Sayed.

Considering the general malleability of this record so far, this isn't outlandish at all. We could safely say those aren't her kids, that wasn't her in any role in any of those fake stories. Is this witness Rasha Sameer Abdulrazaq, wife of Fadi Al-Kurdi? No. But someone was. When she was just a neighbor, she was reported dead. She likely did not survive, and is either listed as one of the couple unplaced female victims, or was left off the lists. Or perhaps the killers spared that real woman for some other fate in secret captivity. This happens with unknown frequency. But either way, she won't be left around, and that's a blank spot someone filled with this impostor, Rasha Whatever.

Intermarriage Side-notes (added June 9)
Rasha wouldn't be THE link to the Kurdi familiy anyway, just one of three. FSA's Akrama Bakour reported 2 women named Khalaf killed: Khaloud was Samir's sister-in-law (married his brother). Haloum married one of his sons, was the mother of a young boy and pregnant with another. So one brother married one Khalaf, and a son married another.
But other lists say instead (compared entries):
Arabic Correlated list   – 2014 morgue photos list  - VDC database entries
- Khalida Hussein Al-Kurdi  - n/l     - Khloud Hussien Al-Kurdi
- Halloumi Khaled Al-Kurdi  -Haloum Khaled Al-kurdi, 20  - Haloum Khalid Al-Kurdi

Haloum (no picture) appears in the 2014 list as the killed mother in the Alaa Sameer Abed Al-Razaq family. Alaa is not listed as killed, but he'll be the married brother Rasha claims dead along with 2 other brothers that Bakour and others (like the people making the list) deny or ignore. Their baby son would not be named Alaa as usually given - it would be his middle name. In fact, by this, he was named for grandpa: Sameer Alaa Abed Al-razaq, 2 years old, son.

Khaloud Al-Kurdi is listed by the VDC and by early Arabic lists, but is not included in the 2014 morgue photos list. Her daughter Rahaf who died is likewise listed everywhere but that 2014 list.

So a brother, a son, and a daughter of Samir each married someone named Al-Kurdi, and this was variously scrambled, with people left off and one explicitly replaced with an imposter. BTW Samir's own wife who allegedly lived is never named. Is she a Kurdi too?

Another mystery: Hussein. If Khaloud Kurdi was Samir's sister-in-law, it suggests she married his brother, an Abdulrazaq. So the children should be named (personal name) (father's personal name) Abdulrazaq. Instead, daughters Rahaf and Zahra are given the last name Hussein in Bakour's rundown. Likewise, opposition lists give that name; the VDC lists Rahaf Mohammad Al-Hussen as dying (they don't have an alleged survivors database to check for Zahra)

This isn't a major point, but I suspect it's an error; Husein being a middle name taken as last because the last name was left off. Even the VDC entry could be explained by that; fuller names may include father's middle name as well, for 4 names. In fact I propose she was named Rahaf Mohamed Hussein Abdulrazaq, daughter of Mohamed Hussein Abdulrazaq. Checking … that's his brother's middle name: 15- Sameer Houseen Abed Al-razaq, 45 years old, father. So that's a really good guess, and Hussein mystery seems solved.

Rasha Yet Again, On Video? (added June 9)
This article so far is short on images - none showing this Rasha have been clearly matched but … there's a video analyzed at ACLOS. If this is another example in the series (seems likely), it's likely the earliest: filmed by frontline FSA activists (acomplices to any terrorist crimes like mass murder or kidnapping), likely the day after, May 26. (checking: they give May 27 - still earlier than either account above on 5-28 and 6-1).
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PXAgHmsqYcg (terminated account)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HsjmalW91Ks (working copy, with many skeptical comments)
By my notes, mostly from the provided English subtitles, there were 5 females appearing as survivors of what might be 2 seperate massacre sites, or one - the clues are mixed. I considered it an unclear line-up, but on reflection, I think this is part of the same effort to explain about 1/5 of the Abdulrazaq victims with one most-told story, and the differences are from this being a first-run they improved over the following days.

1) The first to speak is this young woman from "Saad neighborhood" (Abdulrazaq massacre area), bedridden with a lot of her blood pouring into a coffee can from a tube in her arm. She says Shabiha killed her whole family, which she gives as:
- father and mother, both killed
- 7 out of of 8 siblings (9 total, one more than Rasha would claim). 7 sisters and her one brother. Only she lived.
No one else is mentioned, but it's a brief account. Was the one brother married? She thanks the FSA for coming along soon after the massacre to save her, otherwise she too would be dead now. Asked if the government claims that "armed gangs" did this, she swears "That's a lie. They're all Shabiha pieces of sh*t. They're Assad's men."

2) A pregnant woman is in the bed with her, also set for donating blood, if not draining yet (unclear). At 2:10 she's demanding the regime's fall, no matter how long, no matter how many women and children have to die first. To emphasize the point, she refers to the baby there with her: "like this baby girl. What did she do to deserve this, to die at one and a half months old?" (She didn't die, yet. Possible mistranslation.) At 2:22 she tells her story: "I was standing at the door to my room. I'd only been married for four months. The baby I'm carrying would have been killed along with me." That's it, except "the only one who has any weapons is that pig Bashar! And his army and Shabbiha." Here the pregnant sister-in-law Haloum al-Kurdi survived along with Rasha, likewise suffering a wound?

3) the infant, said 1.5 months old, also draining blood from her tiny abdomen into a collection canister. How can that not be Zahra al-Hussein? Were there two 1.5-month old girls who each survived a massacre in two out of something like 9 or 10 targeted homes in the same area? The salafist cameraman says her mother, father, and brothers were all killed, which wouldn't be correct (just mother and one sister) but he might just mean orphan, lost whoever. He asks us "is she a terrorist? Does she have an RPG? What kind of people would do this, other than Assad's Shabiha? No gang in the world is more criminal, more shameless than Assad's."

4) next is a woman introduced as the infant's aunt. If her direct sister was the baby's mother, and the baby is Zahra, she should be named (personal name) Hussein Al-Kurdi. Otherwise, she sounds a lot like Samir's wife, survived version - even though the possible Rasha here just said her mom died, and this lady disowns the link from her end too. Otherwise:

"There were 12 people in the house and they killed them all. This is my sister's baby daughter. They killed her mother, but my niece survived." 12 killed in a house, perhaps with a pregnant woman, a surviving 1.5 month old girl... If 12 killed, 2-5 of these females surviving, it's a 15-17 member household - compared to a 15-19-member one at Samir's, with 2-4 surviving females.

This lady claims she too was there, as head female of the household:
- "I watched them beat my husband in the head until his brains spilled out. After that, they shot him."
- "Then they killed my four daughters." (not 7 of 8 but all 4 like Samir had - and as with the Rasha story, vanishing/absent brothers - no room Rasha - they don't refer to the same place, or they aren't coordinated well)
- "And my daughter in law (son's wife) and both of her kids." As with the Rasha story, no sons killed, despite a daughter-in-law... (Haloum Al-Kurdi and little Samir? one too many kids, unless she means fetus - that's a point against that being her in the bed...)
- "And my cousin and her four kids." (the Fadi Al-Kurdi kids and their mom (Rasha?)? If so, all 5 are dead here - no room for Rasha there either)
- "And my sister-in-law as well" (Samir's brother's wife, Khaloud Kurdi and Rahaf MH Abdulrazaq?no other person more like "sister" - that must be her above, with the surviving baby. It' spossible she's also her blood sister, but maybe in-law is what she meant.)
- "They were all killed. They thought I was dead. That's what spared me, and let me get out alive." Compare to Rasha Abdulrazaq's mother: "They thought I was dead. It was thanks to God that I survived."
- commentary: "Alawites. Pigs. They're the ones who killed us." A quoted cheer: "with these guns we killed a hundred, oh Ali!"
That's all remarkably similar to the unnamed wife of Samir Abdulrazaq, survived version, likely Al-Kurdi version too (for 4 points of intermarriage if so). (And again, this would be someone probably posing as this wife, who gets reported dead anyway half the time. She could have a different actress for every interview. But the script remains mostly the same each time... same goes for the person most like Rasha here, who looks younger than the 29 claimed by "Rasha Al Sayed Ali," who later told the same basic story.

5) Another niece (unnamed): At 3:52 the aunt briefly pauses between explaining her own survival and swearing to God about all of it, to address a little yellow-clad imp standing patiently behind her. "...and this little girl, my niece, was hiding among the bedding." (Possibly Rasha's surviving sister? Just an improvised add-on not worth correlating? Another coincidence of two eerily similar stories?

5 in this group alone, plus the 2-4 females from Samir's house, be that one scene or two,. plus the others like Ali, Abu Firas, etc. makes this attempted liquidation look rather sloppy as well as self-demonizing. 

Why the UN Investigation is Open to Question

Post created July 19, 2014 
(incomplete)
last edits January 6, 2015

The findings of the United Nation Commission of Inquiry into Syria (CoI), carried out under the auspices of the High Commissioner for Human Rights, provides the closest thing the "international community" or has to an official story on the Houla Massacre. Because of its supposed rigor and impartiality, the CoI's findings are the first source turned to by the Western media and leaders to support their decision to blame the government and allied, genocidal, Alawite militias. 

The findings related on this blog differ greatly, and this post is meant to answer the questions many will have on seeing that disagreement. How on Earth could their rigorous, impartial findings, with such a logical conclusion, be trumped by amateur online investigators?  How is their investigation even really open to question at all? 

The Reports:

* Oral Update of the Independent International Commission of Inquiry on the Syrian Arab 

Republic UN Human Rights Council, June 27, 2012. PDF link. 

* United Nations Human Rights Council: Report of the independent international commission of inquiry on the Syrian Arab Republic. August 16, 2012. A/HRC/21/50 PDF link

Some reasons to doubt their findings: (not an exhaustive list):
1) The Commission of Inquiry was chaired by Karen Koning Abuzayd,  a US diplomat and director of a Washington think tank (Middle East Policy Council) that clearly shares the basic outlook and goals of the US government and its corporate backers. Imagine if this were reversed and a pro-Assad Russian think tank director were put in charge of the probe - can you imagine the uproar? But it's reversed and so everyone calls it credible, not because our slant is the good guy one but because its the one so pervasive it's generally invisible. 
  
2) Its findings are based largely on believing, with little scrutiny, the rebel-supplied alleged witnesses while doing whatever they could to ignore the other alleged witnesses. The Western media and governments already relied on this screening method for their narrative. Repeating that exercise does nothing to "confirm" those prior calls in a manner that reflects well on the report's credibility. (see post Witness Reliability.)

3) A number of flawed and shifting decisions regarding the rebel offensive and security situation are highlighted in our 2014 report, pages 38-40, 43-45, 46, 52, and pages 54-57. The net effect, perhaps coincidentally, is to leave them presuming unfettered government control in the massacre zones rebels almost got themselves into. Thus, most likely it was pro-government forces who did the killings, and so on.

4) The CoI seemingly ignored the UN's own previous findings on Houla to leave itself uninformed, and then blamed the Syrian government. Their June report with its lack of clear blame on the regime notes, perhaps in explanation for that, "the CoI was unable to visit the site of the killing as it has yet to be afforded access to the country. This fact substantially hampered the investigation, and its findings should be viewed in that light."
  But they had a report submitted by the UNSMIS monitors with detailed testimony from Houla residents, and apparently failed to look at it, while insisting on new access for the CoI in particular. I say they apparently failed to look because they otherwise must have consciously ignored what it said; the CoI said in its later August report, assessing the field of alleged witnesses, "apart from the two witnesses in the Government report, no other account supported the Government’s version of events.” There are over a dozen around in the public record that do so. And there are the ones their own monitors heard from but we have not, in a report they should have had access to, but give no clue - in the reports, anyway - of knowing about.
  At a press conference with journalists in Damascus on June 15, Major-General Robert Mood, head of UNSMIS (the UN Special Mission in Syria) spoke on the report he submitted to New York after his team's visit to Taldou. "We have interviews, interviewed locals with one story, and we have interviewed locals that has another story," he said, both included in the report. He gave no further details, but we know what the two basic stories are, and one is consistent with the government's. Was neither of these narratives his people heard from "locals" (plural) that same one supported by the video evidence? Or did the CoI just never see the report?
  As for how the UNSMIS weighed the two witness sets, Gen. Mood said on June 15 "the circumstances leading up to el Houla and the detailed circumstances, the facts related to the incident itself, still remains unclear to us." In the same press conference, Mood offered to help with further on-site investigation to settle the matter. The first UNSMIS Houla report was never referenced, and the mission was willfully shut down in July (mandate allowed to expire by decision of western governments) so there could never be a second one. Note: a month before that proper disbandment, the UNSMIS decided (were compelled?) to suspend all field investigations due to security worries - on June 16, the day after that press conference. 
  So ... the UN's on-the-ground investigation heard two stories, both compelling enough that the situation remained unclear to them. When everything else the CoI considered at first left it unclear as well ... they blame Syria, for not letting them do an on-the-ground investigation ... even though that already happened and yielded a result that sounds at least as murky.  

Some Failed Massacre Narratives

December 21, 2014

Our broad study of all sources remains stuck on the issue of who did it, but broadly, there's agreement on most of the when questions. It was around 1-2 PM, just after noon prayers, when the rebel attack or the army shelling began. With one side or another chased off or circumvented, someone moved onto Saad street and started massacring the Abdulrazaq families, the majority of the dead, somewhere between 2:30 and 5:30 PM, wrapping up by 6-7:30 PM. Around 11 PM the army either regained control of the massacre area, or still had control like they always did but just then started the smaller massacres on Main Street. By morning all bodies not at the main street sites were gathered by rebels with free access.

A few outlying sources disagree with this broad general consensus. but two I only stumbled on recently are incredibly out of whack with all else. I'm glad we didn't start with these, as it would have gotten us even more confused at first and even slower to make sense of stuff.

Der Spiegel
Der Spiegel (English) published a report on May 28 by Ulrike Putz  in Beirut, citing "at least 109" dead that contains a whole different narrative, I think, from any we've considered.

During the demonstrations, as had often happened in recent months, army snipers opened fire on the protesters, an eyewitness told SPIEGEL ONLINE. Several people were killed in the salvos and demonstrators dispersed.

As the afternoon progressed, the FSA unit, under the leadership of a commander named Mahmud,* decided to take revenge for the deaths. As night fell, the rebel fighters attacked all regime checkpoints in and around the village. Up to this point, the official government version of events is in accordance with these reports, with Foreign Ministry spokesman Jihad al-Maqdisi saying that on Friday afternoon "from 2 p.m. to 11 p.m." there were attacks from "terrorists" against regime troops stationed there. 

....An eyewitness reported that the FSA unit suffered significant casualties during their offensive before committing a decisive tactical error. Instead of holding their position in the village, Mahmud elected to withdraw his unit, leaving the villagers unprotected.

At roughtly 11:30 p.m., the Syrian military then began its bombardment of the village, firing tank shells and mortars into town. One witness claimed that rockets were used as well. Most of the casualties occurred during the bombardment, the eyewitness says. But the eyewitness, whose account could not be independently verified, says that 26 victims were killed by regime supporters who entered Houla during breaks in the bombardment. Many of the perpetrators, the witness claims, came from the surrounding villages.

* Mahmoud Al-Houli, FSA activist?

So instead: snipers at the protest, a rebel offensive and no massacre during the early massacre span, then shelling and rebel retreat only near midnight, not mid-day. Mass shelling deaths, and a few executions by Shabiha types followed, all late at night. This odd assemblage agreed with government reports up to a point, but clearly cut off short of the core assertion that rebels conducted a massacre, and even claims the opposite, to a point.

A later report was already clarifying the regime blame, and criticizing the FAZ claims of a rebel rampage. On June 19 they ran Christof Reuter's report citing a few witnesses who all saw the Shabiha drive and/or walk up from Fullah, as soon as the Army shelling stopped. Since they walked, they must be from there and probably were Shabiha, and he asks why would rebels kill their own supporters? One alleged witness he believed entirely was Ayman Abdulrazaq (aka Hassan, Abu Firas, killed by some reports). The New Century Foundation contacted Spiegel about these somewhat contradictory reports (see here seemingly overrating the discrepancy). They received a defense of  the later report, but no authority to quote anyone. And of course a couple week later they were publishing Reuter's collaborative project with numerous interviews of rebel-supplied alleged witnesses, laced with its own internal contradictions...

Summary: the May 28 piece is an early report of a late massacre following the rebel rampage they almost acknowledged (and that more closely coincides with the bulk of the killings and which video proves!). It has value in showing what might be an abandoned early effort to provide a comprehensive rebel narrative.

"Rawan": Massacre in the morning, massacre at night
Now consider that alongside another much later report I just caught, described as coming directly from an eyewitness to events of May 28 [sic]. Syria Direct, Oct. 22, 2013:‘Men returned from prayer to find their families killed’ "Rawan" is now a nurse in the Al-Aisha refugee camp. A once-neutral Sunni, she "lived among Alawites in al-Houla," which everyone else agrees was effectively Alawite-free. But then "on May 28, 2012," she was radicalized, when she "witnessed the United Nations-condemned al-Houla massacre, where the Syrian regime and the shabiha are reported to have summarily executed at least 108 people in two separate incidents, mostly women and children." She clarifies:

The perpetrators of the Al-Houla massacre are the residents of Al-Houla. The shabiha [pro-Assad militias] are our neighbors, people who used to eat and drink with us.

As for the "two separate incidents," it's not the Abdulrazaqs in broad daylight and the al-Sayeds after dark. No, in her nameless version, the Sunni women and children victims were all herded together in one area in the morning, raped and then burned alive. Then the men - who had been away praying - not fighting or even protesting - were killed at night, after they "went mad" and launched an afternoon-evening offensive (not rampage) in revenge.

The massacre happened on a Friday, when all the men were in the mosque, praying. The shabiha called the regime and told them that all the men were in the mosque, that the houses were empty of men. They took their orders from the regime and went to people’s homes. There were around 50 of them, or more; I saw them with my own eyes. They were going to houses, killing women and children in the morning. Reports say 100 women and children were killed.  

After they finished, they called the security forces and told them the operation had been completed successfully. All the men returned from prayer to find their families killed. They went mad, and decided to exact revenge. They gathered at the mosque, and the shabiha surrounded them and killed them all. By a miracle, some survived.  

Imagine gathering all the women and children and raping them. They didn’t have enough time to kill them before the men got back from mosque, so they put them in one house, closed the door and burned them alive. A massacre in the morning and a massacre at night.

Hm... one could spend days dissecting the inconsistencies within  this word salad or between it and the vast remainder that seems to be based on some kind of real information. It's had zero effect, it seems. But it goes to show how people just opening their mouths and claiming things does not make their claims true. And what happened on May 25 has always been, to the dumbed-down masses, a matter of what Shabiha-blaming people opened their mouths and claimed.

But hey, look! One more direct eyewitness who's probably right, because she blames Shabiha, and that's consistent with what the other correct witnesses said.

"Fight for Us" And Other Things Ali Said: Houla Massacre Star Witness Reconsidered

"Fight For Us" and Other Things Ali Said: Houla Massacre Star Witness Reconsidered
Re-posted here December 13, 2014

This is a revised and updated version of an article originally posted July 3, 2012 as "Houla Massacre Star Witness Reconsidered" at SyriaNews.cc. After that site’s closure, it was also carried by Arabi Souri at Wordpress.com). This revision, with much new information, was drafted for and included in the 2013 CIWCL report Official Truth, Real Truth, and Impunity for the Syrian Houla Massacre. Small updates and an extra graphic only are added here. 

1. Adored, Not Ignored

Ali Al-Sayed has been heralded as the most important survivor of and witness to the Houla massacre of May 25, 2012. Just over one hundred people, nearly half of them children, were cruelly butchered in the collected villages called Al-Houla, in Syria’s Homs province (the killings were in the southernmost town of Taldou). But this boy survived, a miracle and a ray of hope. And most importantly, by living to tell, he was a window for the world onto what happened, and what should be done about it. (Or, alternately, a window onto what someone wanted us to think and do).

As related by the news, the victims of the massacre were members of Sunni families being punished for aiding the protests against Assad’s regime, or just on suspicion, or just for being Sunni. Ali’s is no exception; the eleven-year-old says he was shot at but unharmed as his entire family was massacred around him. He dramatically smeared himself with his brother’s blood, after seeing that Nader’s spirit had left his body, and played dead. He then escaped unharmed into the night to tell the world. Or so he says.

Ali wasn’t alone in surviving to blame the government and its allied shadow militia, the Alawite “Shabiha” (roughly “ghost”) armies. [1] Perhaps two dozen others who say they escaped from various targeted homes, most by playing dead, are known so far. [2] Like Ali, they all blame soldiers, Shabiha, or “Alawite pigs,” and ask for outside protection. Ali actually puts it best, if not most subtly, conveying his strong personal feelings about the world’s responsibilities, considering what he says he saw.
 

“I demand that the international community stop the killing in Syria & in Houla … We’re being killed in our homes. The international community is sitting, just talking and not doing anything. The people must fight for us, do what they say, and protect us.” (3:09-3:38) [3]

The world is now dimly aware of a whole other set of alleged witnesses with an opposite story. These have said rebel-affiliated terrorists, including known local families and unknown foreign helpers, carried out an attack on loyalist families remaining in this rebel-dominated area. This witness set contain less miracle escapees who saw the killings, and their accounts are thus more distant, more vague, and more realistic. But somehow these others were ignored while Ali, above all, was adored.

Little Ali is so cute with his baby face and “supergame” t-shirt that he barely even looks eleven. In fact he doesn’t; by the video Ali looks about eight or nine. Perhaps he is younger than stated, maybe after someone decided that the sophisticated plea for foreign help just looked preposterous coming from an 8-year-old.

2. Contacts and Suggestion

Later in 2012, Ali was interviewed by German news Der Spiegel [4] and gave a lip-chewing Skype interview for a documentary by France 2 [5], as well as being featured in an Arabic-language opposition video re-enacting his ordeal. [6] But it was in the days after the massacre that Ali made such big waves in English and worldwide, initially speaking out at least four times, all apparently via a Skype video connection. The first was a video of the boy interviewed, in Arabic, by an unknown man. [3] He also spoke to Martin Chulov of the UK Guardian via Skype, first un-named but with plenty of detail. [7] Both of those occurred on or before the 28th, but he also spoke to the Associated Press the same way on the 30th. [8]

Chulov noted that, with all his family allegedly dead, the boy was living with “a town elder who is a member of the Syrian Revolutionary Council and is now caring for him,” as well as arranging the discussion. The AP contacted him “through anti-regime activists in Houla who arranged for an interview.” [8]

The UN Commission of Inquiry’s initial report, released June 27, shared their investigators’ doubts about a boy that’s clearly Ali. They spoke to him via Skype, making a fourth known interview, but with no details shared. They also reviewed the previous video, but not apparently the Guardian or AP interviews. “In both interviews he blamed the killings on Shabbiha and soldiers of the Syrian army,” they found. "In one interview the survivor stated that the perpetrators arrived together in tanks. The CoI took note of the age of the boy and duly considered his suggestibility." [9]

  The bolded part is something the corporate media and world leaders apparently never did. Considering Ali’s guardian and handler and his network, it’s quite clear who would be doing the suggesting and what basic form it would take. That geo-politically useful form is likely the reason it was accepted with no question.

  Suggestibility is a type of unreliability, but only a potential one. New research shows that active story break-down is a more immediate problem with this alleged witness and survivor. Between only three publicly available accounts, the kid has managed to contradict himself to the point of absurdity, as explained below.

  3. “That is True” – The Attack

In the video, Ali says the attackers entered his home after emerging from “the tank” that pulled up out front. To Chulov, he said “they came in armoured vehicles and there were some tanks.” To the AP, he said they arrived “in a military armored vehicle and a bus.” To Der Spiegel, Ali described, by sound, a “BMB” personnel carrier. [4] Later in the video (around 4:00), he says in Arabic: “they wanted to burn the house, and then they left in cars.” That sentence was bypassed in the translated captions. [10]

  In general, Ali describes the attackers as eleven in number, primarily military in appearance, with some in uniforms and some in civilian clothes, sporting big beards and shaved heads. Some commentators, like Martin Janssen and by him Rainer Hermann, have noted the hair and beard style could describe anti-government Sunni fanatics. [11] However, in various details Ali clearly describes them as Alawites and Assad loyalists. At 2:07 in the video, he’s asked “how did you know it was the army, not armed gangs?” He answered “the tank was outside, they came out of it.” Further, they “were dressed as military,” and were “Shabiha.” [3] Chulov noted the boy’s calm delivery relating his family’s massacre, but how he then grew argumentative when asked how he knew who the attackers were. “Why are you asking me who they were? I know who they were. We all know it. They were the regime army and people who fight with them. That is true.” [7] Later, he was quoted by Chulov as saying the attackers “spoke with an Alawite accent,” and “said they were from Foulah (a neighboring Alawite town). They were Shabiha. And they were proud of it.” [12]

  He agrees in all accounts his mother was killed after shouting at the soldiers. In the video, he says “my mom screamed at them as they were arresting (brother) Shaoqi and my uncle(s),” who were taken alive but killed before the next day. [3] AP reported back “the men led Ali’s father and oldest brother outside” and killed them there, and then she screamed “Why did you take them? Why did you take them?’” before being shot down. [8]

  But in the version told to Chulov, Ali’s mother and the young children were shot dead while the sought men stayed hidden nearby in the house. “My mum yelled at them … ‘What do you want from my husband and son?’” They gunned her down, tried to kill Ali, and murdered Nader and Rasha, then started looting. After all of this, “on the way out of the house, the boy said the gunmen found the three men they had been looking for. “They shot my father and uncle. And then they found Aref, my oldest brother, near the door. They shot him dead too.”[7]

  In general, Ali claims he escaped only after the attackers left, having played dead until that point. They had found him and shot right at him, he’s said, but managed to miss, and then he dramatically smeared himself with someone else’s blood as a disguise. Some sources say it was his mother’s blood he used, but no primary sources seem to support that. Martin Chulov reported in the Guardian “he smeared himself in the blood of his slain brother.” To the AP, he specified it was Nader’s blood, a point played up in the cited New York Post publication (the photo is captioned “blood brother”).

  However, in the video interview, he doesn’t mention anyone’s blood. He does however say that when they shot and missed, he was actually “hit,” or grazed on the back of his right hand. He shows this to the camera, which can make out what seems like three faint scratches, less than three days after the massacre. It seems it was his own (bloodied?) hand that he used to hide under; “after they killed us, I went like this (right hand covering the side of his face), acting like I was shot.”

  There are other points he was more consistent on between his Guardian and video interviews. For example, the number of bullets (five) fired through the front door lock. The stolen items are consistent; on video, he lists three televisions, a computer, and an item translated once as a vacuum cleaner, another time as a broom. [3] (2:36) The Guardian’s Martin Chulov listed only “three televisions and a computer.” Later speaking to Der Spiegel, however, the vacuum cleaner had been explicitly replaced; they stole “two TV sets, our washing machine and the computer.” [4] This seems to refer to the usual, bulky and low-value, domestic clothes-washing machine, but to be fair, it could be just another translation issue.

  From his attack chronology conflicts alone, the boy’s account is highly questionable. Traumatic reality has a way of driving facts home better than attempts at memorization, and these alleged facts are pretty loose.

  4. A Fungible Family

  Considering Ali as a questionable witness, it might well follow that he was never a member of the massacred Al-Sayed family. And if that were so, his alleged facts of this family might be as loose as his attack narrative, seeming to be sloppily memorized rather than driven into place by a short lifetime of shared history.

  And in fact Ali seems unable to keep his family members straight. A certain pool of names remains constant, but these shift freely from one member to another between accounts. The effect, distilled below, is bizarre.

  To Der Spiegel, Ali recalled his unnamed father fondly; he took his son "to many demonstrations," always having "kebabs and cola first!" But an arrest in November left Mr. Al-Sayed "afraid to go." [4] Rendered harmless, he was killed anyway.

  As for the father’s name, Ali gives that as identical to his own – Ali Alsayed -  in the video interview. But to the Guardian, he’s apparently named Aref: “They said they wanted Aref and Shawki, my father and my brother.” Then it turns out Aref was “my oldest brother,” and Shawki apparently his father. [7] In the video, Shaoqi (Shawki) is his killed older brother. [3] So perhaps Aref is the father after all? No – the video is where it’s specified he was named Ali.

  On video he names two uncles, Oqba and Arif/Aref. Though the interviewer repeatedly reminds him both uncles were taken, Ali keeps using the singular form, apparently referring to Oqba, and insists the third male killed was his own brother, not his father’s. [3] But to Martin Fletcher, he said the killed uncle was named Abu Haider. [13] (MF) To Martin Chulov, the killed uncle isn’t named, but the gunmen initially “asked about my uncle, Abu Haidar. They also knew his name. ” [7]

  Ali’s mother is always dead and never named, and his younger siblings are a bit more stable. Rasha, 5, and Nader, 6, both killed before his eyes, both mentioned in the video and in both early interviews. To the AP he also adds another brother, Aden, age 8. That’s seven murders minimum, eight if there were two uncles taken. But when he saw the soldiers later “they were describing six people dead in my house. They included me. They thought I was dead.” [7] By this he thinks there were only five people killed, forgetting at least two.

  The one known victims list, * from the Damascus Center for Human Rights Study (DCHRS), comprehended with Google translate, doesn’t even contain the family names Al-Sayed or anything close. There is a family name “Mr. Arif” or Aref, the first name of Ali’s brother/ uncle as given, and the father of the family by other sources (see below). This appears for entries 30, 31, 48, and 93, with matching first names Nader (#30) and Rasha (#48). But there are only the four entries when 7-8 family members are said to have been killed. [14]

   * 2014 note: other lists were later tracked down and correlated - see updated endnote 14

  The other two Arifs given on that list as dying are Mohammed and Adel. [14] Adel is similar to Aden, the brother who was mentioned by Ali only in his later interviews with AP and Spiegel. And it’s Ali’s middle name too; “A baby, Ali Adel al-Sayyed, miraculously survived,” anti-government activist Maysara al-Hilawi told Reuters. [15] To Der Spiegel, the witness spoke as “Ali Adil Sayyid.” [4] Further, when the interviewer in the video repeats back Ali’s father’s name, he seems to add, and even emphasize, an “Adel,” repeating “Ali Adel Sayed.” [3]

  The Adel link might also help explain why the DCHRS victim list also contains one “Mr. Adel Shawki,” perhaps meaning “Mr. Aref Shawki,” meaning Shaoqi Al-Sayed, the brother/father that Ali cited. [13] Thus it seems possible these related entries were gathered from Ali himself, who managed to confuse things again to create the mess recorded here. (DCHRS is a member of the International Federation for Human Rights, FIDH/IFHR. [16])

5. The Physical Family

  A partial family identification, pieced together by A Closer Look On Syria (ACLOS) after this article’s first publication, draws on several sources. The first appeared only in September, when Ali made a video with opposition Houla Media Office and a couple of rebel fighters, taking a long walk together south across the fields just east of Main Street. At a certain home, they stop so he can re-enact the massacre as he allegedly saw there (this is still not fully scrutinized for details). [6]

  The home in question is the same one shown by SANA news on May 26 and filmed by UN monitors as well. As both showed it, the home featured in situ bodies matching the family Ali describes; two dead boys (aged app. 6-9), a girl (app. 5), and an adult woman inside, and three men executed just outside the door. [17]

  Further, the identities SANA specified are head of household Aref Mohammad al-Sayyid, killed alongside "his two brothers Imad and Ouqba, his wife Izdihar Ali al-Daher,” and the three children, unnamed. (The mother is seen in a room apart from the others - laid across a bed - in a UNSMIS video. Though fully clothed, it’s said in a France 2 documentary that she was raped before her murder, conflicting with Ali’s claim she was simply shot right in front of him). No survivor is mentioned. [17]

From SANA TV, May 26, the men killed just outside Ali’s alleged home. SANA cites Aref Al-Sayyid and his brothers Imad and Ouqba. Ali cites his brother Shaoqi / Aref, their father Ali / Shaoqi, and uncle Ouqba / Aref / Abu Haidar. 

  The father’s name, Aref, is a common one in Ali's narratives, used for his uncle or his older brother, but never for his father. All three were, he said in most versions, taken outside and shot. Uncle Oqba is a fit, but the third man is in contention: Ali cites his older brother Aref/Shaoqi, while SANA said it was his alleged uncle Imad.

  At this point, it’s more than reasonable to put the name “Ali Al-Sayed” in quotes, on suspicion of being a fake witness who, lucky for him, was nowhere near the massacre sites that day. His winding up under protection of opposition people could be from being born there. Perhaps the “town elder who is a member of the Syrian Revolutionary Council” is his uncle.

  His story then would be untrue, but it does seem crafted to fit with, and explain, the very real demise of this one particular family.

  6. A Government Family?

  Abdelmutti Al-Mashlab is a name that doesn’t appear in Ali’s early narratives. He was in the Syrian parliament, the Peoples’ Assembly. This had just been chosen on May 7 in an election the rebellion insisted was a regime ploy no one should participate in. [18] (Rebels managed to block polling in many areas, but about 52% of eligible voters managed anyway, according to official sources). The winners – this time including many pre-rebellion opposition members, and working with a brand-new constitution – were sworn in on May 24 and voted into positions within the parliament. [19]

SANA reported that “Abdel Mou'ti Mashlab” was elected as one of two secretaries that day in Damascus. (A previous version of this article said that he was elected the parliament’s speaker, but SANA says that went to one Mohammad Jihad al-Laham.) [20] The next day, as the new assembly set to its first day of work, it’s strongly alleged that part of Secretary Mashlab’s family back in Al-Houla was one of those slaughtered. As with all the others, that was blamed on the government, right along with its “reforms” and “democracy.”

  One of the ignored local witnesses explained the man she called Abdullah Al-Mashlab “was elected on May 24th, and the next day they killed his wife and three kids and his brother and his big family as well.” [21] She may have the name wrong and the victims too closely related. SANA reported, as do other witnesses, that the family with Oqba in it was only somehow “related to a People's Assembly member.” The link was distant enough to have a different actual family name, but close enough, SANA implies, to matter here. They say the election raised the ire of “one Haitham al-Housan,” (aka Hassan, Hallak) a local bandit who already hated the Al-Sayeds, and oversaw their murders on May 25. [22]

This parliament connection to the Houla massacre is acknowledged, if vaguely, by the other side. American NPR reported on the testimony of a possible alleged relative of Ali’s, 17-year-old Maryam Sayid. “The Syrian government says [the attackers] were out to punish one family that had a relative in the Syrian parliament,” NPR reported. But Maryam, a self-described member of that family, “said the government’s version is simply untrue.” She wouldn’t “hide with anti-government rebels,” as she did, if that’s who she was running from. [23] But it could be, as it could be with Ali, that she was always with the rebels, and only pretending to have first been a survivor of a government massacre.

The killed family Maryam describes was headed by retired police officer Muawiya Al-Sayed, who, as SANA reported, “didn’t defect (to the rebels) and was always in danger (from them).” [22] Maryam says he never defected, but was killed by the government anyway, along with some portion of his family. This included his grown son, Maryam said in a more detailed interview with Der Spiegel - an army soldier on leave with a broken leg. [4] Innocent of rebellion and seemingly almost on the government’s side, they were apparently hit for their sectarian credentials alone, in her provocative and propagandistic narrative. “They killed us because we are Sunni,” NPR quoted Maryam as saying; the killers were “Alawite thugs wearing all black and chanting sectarian slogans.” [23]

While they share a common name and lived close to each other on Main Street, the available information is not decisive on whether the Muawiya Al-Sayed family and the Aref-Oqba Al-Sayed family were directly related. But Maryam says - to NPR, if not to Der Spiegel – that she was related to the People’s Assembly secretary. And the latter heard that Ali from down the street was “a distant relative of Abdulmuti Mashlab, a member of the Syrian parliament.” [4] In fact, Ali says, he “was merely the uncle of his uncle's wife,” probably too distant to hurt like the authorities suggested, or to be related at all. [4]

The article further says this tenuous kinship “prompted UN observers to make the assumption” that’s why the family was killed. [4] No source was given for that claim, and no such statement is readily available. It would be encouraging to learn that the UN’s investigators had become open-minded when presented with a clue like that. But in the end, such things didn’t seem to matter much to them.

7. The Unnamed Evil Uncle

Despite the amazing confusion over his alleged immediate family and their names, two of Ali’s accounts consistently suggest another, closer relative, described as an uncle – unnamed but living nearby – was complicit in the killings.

To the Guardian, he reported running to this uncle’s house for safety, but strangely, the soldiers who had attacked his own home then arrived right after him. Unseen, apparently by everyone, he overheard the Shabiha talking to his uncle as if on good terms. They mentioned the six killings that were only five, and then he recalled them “asking his uncle if he knew who lived in the house that they just rampaged through,” as if he had been the one to send them. [7]

Furthermore, in the video, Ali says his father, uncle, and brother were taken away, rather than killed there. He said he only knew they had been killed because “the next day I saw them dead on the government TV channel.” [3] This 8-11 year-old from an ostensibly rebel family apparently makes sure to keep up on what SANA is saying, perhaps while eating a bowl of cereal back at his uncle’s house. After that, “my uncle came on saying that armed gangs killed his children.” (emphasis added) But Ali knew this wasn’t true – he caught the lie on both ends, at his own home and his uncle’s, in his fanciful story.

The name of this evil uncle is unspecified in both cases, which is noteworthy. Relation Abdelmutti Al-Mashlab, the Peoples’ Assembly secretary, is likely to be featured on state TV following the murder of his family. Was Ali accusing him of celebrating his election victory by running back to Al-Houla and overseeing the massacre of his own traitorous or too-Sunni  family? Maybe that was the idea at first, but the there’s no indication Mr. Mashlab lived in Taldou, and Ali’s Spiegel interview all but rules him out even if he did, as too distant to be called “uncle.”

  These stories could refer to Muawiya Al-Sayed, the possibly related police officer up the street. But he was killed that night, Maryam and the Syrian authorities say. SANA has specified an uncle Imad, but Ali never has, so that’s probably not it. He too was killed. Ali might also refer to his uncle Abu Haidar, whom the soldiers asked after before gunning down uncle Oqba. Unless Abu Haidar was the uncle killed along with Ali’s father and brother, as he once said. [13] Then, maybe it was Oqba he ran to, but he too is reported dead, and more reliably so.

  None of these works very well, and none of them seems to be the intended match. So it must have been some other uncle yet to whom Ali ran, only to find he’d sent the killers himself and lied about it on national TV. And still, this villain allowed Ali himself to see it all and survive, apparently escaping again to his new anti-government friends and their world audience.

  Perhaps this convenient uncle was more of a literary device than a real person. That would explain it.

8. Conclusion: Abilities and Disabilities

The case for a Syrian government-ordered massacre at Al-Houla was taken as obvious fact from day one by the Western powers and all those kept on the same page with them. The blamed government had its ambassadors expelled over the blame, along with harsh condemnations of the blamed government, and increased talk of arming the rebels to help stop the killing.

But the blame comes down to a handful of alleged miracle escapees and the “activists” they now live and roll with, divorced from all consideration of the non-rebel witnesses. The believed batch is anchored by this juvenile star witness, but we can now assess his abilities and disabilities.

He’s not able to remember the names of his own father and older brother, nor of his cluster of named uncles simmered down to a dead one vs. an evil one. He apparently cannot count past six or know when he should try. He cannot remember consistently whether the men of the house were killed first, were taken away and killed later, or cowered by the door in silence as the youngest and their mother were mowed down one by one. He cannot well explain how he escaped with those faint scratches on his hand standing in for the slightest actual injury. He reports gunfire only, no stabbing, throat-slitting, eye-gouging, or any such thing. We know these things happened in the Houla massacre, but not to Ali or any of his kin, he reports.

Ali’s abilities more than make up for his shortcomings. Like a video camera he consistently recalls minor details, like the five bullets in the lock and that everyone knows it was the regime, and those who fight with them, who did it. He can expose his scheming uncle’s wicked plots, detect an “Alawite accent,” from the Foulah “Shabiha” a mile away, who don’t seem to exist. [24] He’s incapable, apparently, of telling us what really, realistically, might have happened. But as we’ve seen, he’s been fully able to move a world that badly wants to believe the poor little guy anyway.
---
2014 addendum: an odd pattern that popped up where one early list of only 7 names seems almost like half of the Aref al-Sayed family, with the other half of its members swapped in from other families. (Fatima stayed appearing on her own merits as a real victim, while Ali and Khawla - listed as adults, maybe meant to be his "real" parents - remain unsupported anywhere else but for seeming phantom entries at the VDC (Center for Documentation of Violations in Syria)

References:
[1] http://acloserlookonsyria.shoutwiki.com/wiki/The_Shabiha:_Ghost_Stories%3F
[2] http://acloserlookonsyria.shoutwiki.com/wiki/Houla:Alleged_witnesses_for_a_government/Shabiha_attack
[3] http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X9KnjNxU8nI (account deleted, said vacuum cleaner) or http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o6yVbOBbO6I (says broom)
[4] Christoph Reuter and Abd al-Kadher Adhun for DER SPIEGEL, "Searching for the Truth Behind the Houla Massacre", published July 23, 2012 http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/a-look-back-at-the-houla-massacre-in-syria-a-845854.html
[5] Houla, autopsie d'un massacre, France2 documentary aired September 20, 2012 http://envoye-special.france2.fr/les-reportages-en-video/houla-autopsie-d’un-massacre--20-septembre-2012-4605.html
[6] http://acloserlookonsyria.shoutwiki.com/wiki/Talk:Ali_Al-Sayed#Field_expedition_with_Ali 
[7] Houla massacre survivor tells how his family were slaughtered. Martin Chulov, the Guardian, May 28, 2012. http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/may/28/houla-massacre-survivor-boy-syria
[8] Syrian boy says he survived military massacre of his family by smearing himself with his brother’s blood and playing dead. Associated Press, via New York Post, June 1, 2012.  http://www.nypost.com/p/news/international/syria_slaughter_miracle_boy_awn8GLCUh0o8Qp3kRcVVLO
[9] UN Human Rights Commission, Oral Update, June, 2011 A/HRC/20 http://www.ohchr.org/Documents/HRBodies/HRCouncil/RegularSession/Session20/COI_OralUpdate_A.HRC.20.CRP.1.pdf
[10] Comment by “Shaamnews” on posted original version of this article http://arabisouri.wordpress.com/2012/07/04/houla-massacre-star-witness-reconsidered/
[11] Janssen: http://opinie.deredactie.be/2012/06/02/de-verschrikkingen-van-houla/ Hermann: http://www.faz.net/aktuell/politik/neue-erkenntnisse-zu-getoeteten-von-hula-abermals-massaker-in-syrien-11776496.html (translation from German) http://www.moonofalabama.org/2012/06/prime-german-paper-syrian-rebels-committed-houla-massacre.html
[12] http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/jun/01/houla-massacre-reconstructing-25-may
[13] http://www.telegraphindia.com/1120602/jsp/frontpage/story_15560453.jsp#.UWlHaUbTQ98
[14] 2014 note: DCHRS victims list, Arabic, compressed with original auto-translate names, better translation, etc. available here at ACLOS: http://www.shoutwiki.com/w/images/acloserlookonsyria/archive/3/3a/20140708110056!Houla_Victims_Arabic_Correlated.pdf
[15] “Families herded “Like Sheep” to die in Houla massacre” By Khaled Yacoub Oweis, Reuters (Amman), May 30, 2012. http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/05/30/us-syria-crisis-houla-idUSBRE84T1BH20120530
[16] Damascus Center for Human Rights Study. http://www.dchrs.org/news.php
[17] “The Household Ali Explains,” A Closer Look on Syria: http://acloserlookonsyria.shoutwiki.com/wiki/Ali_Al-Sayed#The_Household_Ali_Explains
[18] SANA, May 15: http://sana.sy/eng/21/2012/05/15/419139.htm
[19] http://english.cntv.cn/program/asiatoday/20120524/122858.shtml
[20] SANA, May 24. http://sana.sy/eng/21/2012/05/24/421043.htm
[21] http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JD0PA0BxNAQ
[22] Witnesses to al-Houla Massacre: Massacres Were Carried Out Against Specific Families That Support the Government. Syrian Arab News Agency, English. Jun 02, 2012 http://www.sana.sy/eng/337/2012/06/02/422915.htm http://nsnbc.me/2012/06/02/witnesses-to-al-houla-massacre-massacres-were-carried-out-against-specific-families-that-support-the-government/
[23] “Sectarian Syrian Group Blamed In Houla Massacre” by Kelly McEvers, NPR Morning Edition, June 05, 2012 http://www.npr.org/2012/06/05/154335032/sectarian-syrian-group-blamed-in-houla-massacre
[24] Alex Thompson’s blog, Sunday June 3, 2012. http://blogs.channel4.com/alex-thomsons-view/search-houla-killers/1811

Witness Reliability

Post started July 17
Last edited December 17

At A Closer Look On Syria, we've opted for the term "alleged witnesses" to describe people on both sides of the Houla Massacre narrative schism - Houla: Alleged Witnesses. Here, we will gather some thoughts on reliability, pro and con, for both sets, and cite some examples.

(July 18 note: "We will" meaning we have/will, and I will organize some reflection of that here soon - to start, two samples in a category to show how we can critique witnesses from both sides)

Problematic Witnesses - Rebel Guilt Narrative:
1) "Arifah": Meaning 'a knowledgeable woman," this is the reference name ACLOS gave to the female half of the leading two witnesses presented by SANA et al. in early June. She claims much knowledge, but seemingly gathered it in a variety of ways; some visual observation but mostly listening to a radio scanner and second-hand information, including a litany of past rebel abuses many would question (we would suggest none of it's that far-fetched, but let's just not get distracted)
The UN's investigators concluded these two leading witnesses were the only ones in existence supporting a rebel attack. Between them, they almost totally ignore the "rebel defector" (as we dubbed him) with his detailed inside knowledge as a participant in the Battle for the Houla Massacre. They focused their criticism on "Arifah," partly with valid points.
(details forthcoming)

2) "Ahmed": There is one witness for the rebel guilt narrative who classes as a "miracle survivor," although not the usual "I hid behind a door" "they thought I was dead" type. He says he's an Abdulrazaq family member accused of coverting to Shi'ism, but had worked with local rebels before. So, he says, rebels he knew willingly spared him and his whole family (and then smuggled them out, let them just walk away amid the attack, had them stay put through it, or what, is all left unclear). All-in-all, "Ahmed," as he was called, has a problematic account. It raises a number of questions and doesn't answer them, and gives few details. It's far from ruled out, but neither does it seem sound enough to hang much weight on.
(source: Syria: German Author Todenhöfer met with Eyewitness from al-Houla Jurgen Todennhöfer, originally published in the German magazine Bild as Mein Treffen mit Assad, 9 July, 2012)

3) Others: most of the dozen or so interviewees just get one line comments, most of them showing no deeper insight than a general rebel attack they only each saw a part of. They complain that it left police and soldiers dead, houses and the hospital burnt, people displaced, and so on. Only the two leading witnesses, the Defector and Arifah, give much useful detail, one of those with some substantial and identifiable problems, the other without.


Problematic Witnesses - Shabiha Guilt Narrative:
    Any rebel-absolvers reading this who were just tempted to write off "Ahmed" as an obvious liar with an implausible survival story, take careful note here: he's the only one like that on that side. Conversely, opposition activists put forth at least 34-37 alleged miracle survivors, with at least 18 on record as witnesses who speak of or for the other half (explained here). If the "Shabiha" killed 106 and failed with 34, that's 140 at least intended, for a fail rate of no less than 24%. These generally unharmed people relate a cartoonish assault by idiot-brute villains who cut deals for no one, try to kill everyone, and fail a lot. Three different women claim they survived by hiding behind a door. One says she ran when one Shabih shot another by accident. Some hid in the barn, some played dead, passed out, etc.

    Some claim to be shot and might be. Some of the many people shown might be real survivors, shot and now in rebel custody, telling the rebel story - maybe because it's true, maybe for other reasons. They all consistently blame Shabiha and claim total innocence for local rebels and themselves. Like all Syrians, they suggest, the victims were peaceful rebel sympathizers who detest Bashar Al-Assad. They fail to mention in any form the rebel-initiated Battle for the Houla Massacre that came right before the massacre. No rebels were around then, only afterwards to save the survivors, praise God. So they say.

Just to highlight a few of particular unreliability (and with many runners-up):
1) "Ali Al-Sayed"
    Little "Ali Adel Al-Sayed, age 11 (visually about 9) says he played dead. In one version he says he did that by putting his hand over his face - it was bloody from being shot. But it was healed up within a few days, leaving only a faint scratch he shows as proof on that video. Compelling? Yes, apparently. He's adorable, and was nearly murdered by Assad. You just don't go questioning someone like that, and so few did.
    We started with him in June, 2012, and I had a detailed article up by July 3. In his multiple accounts, he gives three different names for his father, with the unused names swapped in alternately for his older brother and his uncle(s). He ... wow, he just has too much wrongness to relate here.
    The original article was expanded for the 2013 report, including the important correlation thatb he claims to represent the contested family allegedly related to the new parliament secretary Abdelmutti Al-Mashlab. Ali, the inconsistent malleable child witness, paints Aref Al-Sayed's family as distantly related, not a plausible motive, with no real political leaning except some flirtation with protests. But he cannot consistently remember the names of his elder male relatives or when and how they were killed (shot outside first, shot last after hiding through the massacre - behind a door - or killed later after they were taken away alive).
    This is the adorable star witness. His stories don't make much sense, but he recognized the Alawite accents and knows the International Community is supposed to be protecting them. Shame on all of, ays little Ali.

See also 2014 version of 2013 revision published on-site, here: "Fight for us" and other things Ali said

2) Ayman/Hassan/Abu Firas Abdulrazaq:
(forthcoming)

3) Malik Bakour:
    Defected soldier Malik Baqur (Bakour) gives one account (Der Speigel, video) where he was at the “protest” in the center of Taldou when he “received a message from the troops along Sadd [Saad] Street telling us that a group was coming from the next village” (that being Fullah, but they knew some were also from Alkabo (Alawi) and Algur (Shia) beyond). Who these well-informed “troops” are is unexplained and interesting. Then Malik says he walked down Saad, arriving at a spot “300 meters from the massacre area” in time to see the Alawite Shabiha marching all the way back to Fullah at 6:30, with a truck he recognized from a checkpoint there. He does not claim that they left behind a list of participants, but Malik's story is almost that perfectly preposterous.
    But he also says (Spiegel, text) that he was already at the home of his cousin on Saad Street, doing nothing in particular until the invasion and massacre (defected major Jihad Raslan told Spiegel he was at his own home doing nothing, 300 meters from the crime scene, and hooked up with Malik to inspect hoimes right after). This latter story, lining up with Jihad's, suggests there was no fight – or even protest - for them to be out in, which seems to be untrue. Also, one or both of Malik's stories – both of them confusingly published by Der Spiegel – must be untrue.
(Source: "Searching for the Truth Behind the Houla Massacre" By Christoph Reuter and Abd al-Kadher Adhun, Der Spiegel, July 23, 2012(for text part), video interviews for the video interview)


4) Rasha and Rasha:
(forthcoming)

5) "Fatima":
(forthcoming)

remaining content, any others, forthcoming.